Top Farmer Midday Update

CORN: Corn futures have reversed early losses and are now up 4 cents with Jul 3.67. Dec found support at 3.80 and is at 3.88-1/2. Both contracts had become deeply oversold, technically, and quickly turned positive when beans began rising off their new lows. The trade war talk and favorable U.S. crop conditions up to this point, along with a non-bullish old crop USDA Supply/Demand report have played a significant role in the recent price plunge. And, with First Notice Day approaching for July contracts, we have to believe the core net longs of corn, beans and meal are close to being done exiting. Coming into today's trade, they were seen net long an estimated 39,000 corn contracts. New highs were posted in the dollar overnight, adding early outside market pressure, but the currency has since stabilized and was recently down 9 points. Crude is down $1.32 per barrel.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are down 4-1/2 cents to 9.22-3/4 in the Jul bean contract with a new low in place at 9.03; and, 4-1/4 cents lower to 9.45-3/4 in Nov. That contract found a low at 9.27-1/4. The bean market opened sharply lower following further weakness overnight, but turned positive briefly before slipping lower again. NOPA crush will be out later this morning. The trade is looking at a crush of 165.089 mil bushels. The weekly Commitments of Traders report will be out after the close. Investors who took on a bullish stance in soybean futures and options over the last couple months are now underwater in their bets and have nearly exited the position entirely as of Thursday. Coming into today's trade, Managed Money was net long an estimated 5,000 contracts of soybeans; net long 80,000 lots of soymeal, and; net short 70,000 lots of soyoil.

WHEAT: Nearby winter wheat futures are now higher with Jul CBOT wheat up a nickel to 5.06-1/2 and, Jul KC wheat up 3 to 5.25-1/4. Both contracts dropped below their respective 100-day moving average support floors on spillover weakness from broad-market selling tied to trade talks, but are now back above and look to try to re-enter their previous trend-line ranges. Sep MPLS wheat is still down 6-1/2 cents to 5.83-1/4.

CATTLE: Cattle futures are sharply higher after an early morning drop off in prices. Jun live are now up 1.025 to 107.250. The Aug live cattle contract will soon be the spot month contract and is up 2.275 to 104.150 with this week's cash seen at $110 to $112/cwt. Aug feeders are up 3.300 146.975.

HOGS: Hog futures are higher as bullish fundamental traders took advantage of a lower start that was part of the negative reaction to trade tariff talk. The Jul hog contract, up .8650 to 82.725, is now the new lead month after Jun went off the board yesterday. Aug hogs are up 300 to 78.900. Oct hogs are up .300 to 64.950.




Market Commentary provided by:

Stewart-Peterson
137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
Phone: 800-334-9779
E-mail: rmainville@stewart-peterson.com
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